Malawi: Peter Mutharika leads presidential race, a political turning point with uncertain repercussions
To everyone’s surprise, former president Peter Mutharika is far ahead of incumbent president Lazarus Chakwera in the provisional results of the September 16 presidential election in Malawi. With about 66% of the votes counted in two-thirds of the districts, Mutharika appears to be benefiting from a major political shift, even securing victories in his rival’s traditional strongholds.
This resurgence in popularity marks a striking reversal in the country’s electoral dynamics. While Chakwera had won a resounding victory in 2020, his presidency quickly became mired in deep economic crises: uncontrolled inflation, fuel shortages, and chronic power outages. These difficulties seem to have eroded the trust once placed in him by voters, paving the way for Mutharika’s strong comeback.
However, tensions remain. Chakwera’s team has requested a “physical audit” of the results, citing irregularities, and eight data clerks have been arrested for attempting to manipulate figures. The Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), eager to preserve its credibility after the 2019 crisis that led to the annulment of Mutharika’s victory, has promised transparency and rigor.
The final outcome still depends on results from 12 districts yet to be announced. To avoid a second round, a candidate must surpass the 50% threshold. If Mutharika confirms his victory, he will need to quickly reassure economic partners and address the country’s structural challenges. A return to power in such a tense context could either drive recovery or reignite tensions.
