Madagascar: Colonel Randrianirina takes power after President Rajoelina’s exfiltration
The political landscape of Madagascar has been upended by a military figure with a singular career: Colonel Michaël Randrianirina. An officer from CAPSAT, trained at the Antsirabe Military Academy, and a former governor and ex-detainee, he has now become the central figure in a rapid political transition, set against a backdrop of a presidential vacuum and popular rejection of the established elites.
This shift followed the exfiltration of President Andry Rajoelina by France, after his attempt to dissolve the National Assembly was invalidated.
A motion of impeachment passed by deputies opened the way for a military takeover, formalized on October 15 with the creation of a National Defense Transitional Council (CDNT), led by Colonel Randrianirina.
The High Constitutional Court, acknowledging the power vacuum, legitimized this transition, conferring upon the colonel the role of interim head of state.
The impact of this transition on Madagascar’s development remains uncertain. On one hand, Randrianirina benefits from a reservoir of public goodwill, earned in part during the “Gen Z” citizen mobilizations where he opposed the use of force against protesters.
On the other, the weakened institutional context, the suspension of key bodies (CENI, Senate, HCDDED), and uncertainties surrounding the organization of elections risk hindering the country’s political and economic recovery.
While this military transition is presented as regulated and temporary, it must quickly demonstrate its ability to restore confidence, prepare for a return to constitutional order, and avoid a protracted stalemate.
The challenge for Madagascar is now to transform this power grab into a democratic opportunity rather than an unstable precedent.
